report

impact analysis of reduced flight activity at Schiphol

Results

Reducing the number of flights at Schiphol has a negative impact on the Dutch society. The negative impacts on consumers and businesses (in terms of higher ticket prices and longer travel times) outweigh the positive impacts on the climate and the environment (through reduced noise pollution, improved air quality and a higher level of safety). Reducing flight supply may have a negative impact on the business climate and the agglomeration of companies in the region. Impact on net employment are limited, although there may be temporary frictional unemployment. As noise pollution decreases, new opportunities for land use around the airport, such as residential development, arise. The results appear robust to various assumptions.

Background

Schiphol requires a nature permit to operate the airport. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature (LNV) only issues such a permit if Schiphol demonstrates that the impact of air traffic on the surrounding Natura 2000 areas remain within legal limits. If the limits are in danger of being exceeded, Schiphol must take measures to still meet the limits. This may require a reduction in the number of flight movements. The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (IenW) asked a consortium consisting of PwC/Strategy&, Adecs and MovingDot to assess the societal impacts of a possible reduction. Beelining advised the consortium on how passengers and airlines might respond to such a reduction, the impacts on the network and the quantification of the various impacts.

Methodology

The societal impacts were determined by contrasting a reference scenario with 500,000 flights per year with two alternative scenarios with fewer flights. The two alternative scenarios are possible scenarios on the basis of which the Ministry of LNV assesses the permit application:

460,000 flights on five runways
376,000 flights on four runways. Here the Polder-runway is no longer used and the number of flights is scaled back in such a way that noise pollution does not increase.

The impacts on consumers, businesses, the climate and the environment were quantified as much as possible. The analysis was not a full Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA), as the impacts were only estimated for one year (2018). In determining the impacts, however, the recommendations from the Aviation Specific SCBA Work Guide were followed as much as possible.

Colophon

Client: Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management

In cooperation with: PWC / Strategy&, Adecs, MovingDot

Type: Research report

Date: June 2022

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(report is in Dutch)

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